THREATCON 1 β LOW
π INTELLIGENCE BRIEF24 Aug 17:14 UTC
25
Events / 7d
-40%
vs Last Week
Rakhine
Top Region
β ALERTS
βΈNo critical alerts in the current period.
KEY EVENTS
π¨Kayin StateΒ·21 Aug
HIGH89%Monsoon floods in Myawaddy, Karen State cause evacuations along Myanmar-Thailand border.
HUMANITARIAN ALERT27 killedDVB News
π RISK OUTLOOK
| Region | Score | Trend | Events |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rakhine State | 44 | β rising | 55 |
| Sagaing Region | 28 | β rising | 30 |
| Naypyidaw Union Territory | 9 | β rising | 13 |
| Kayin State | 7 | β stable | 6 |
| Shan State | 5 | β stable | 7 |
π² SCENARIO ANALYSIS β MONTE CARLO1,000 iterations
STATE VARIABLES
Conflict Intensity75%
Economic Stability30%
MODIFIERS
TIME HORIZON
π²
Configure parameters and run simulation
to see probability distributions
π EVENT CLUSTERS
137 events579 fatalities12 clusters
| Region | Events | Avg Sev | Deaths |
|---|---|---|---|
| βRakhine State | 55 | 1.9 | 301 |
| βSagaing Region | 30 | 2.4 | 233 |
| βNaypyidaw Union Territory | 13 | 1.9 | β |
| βShan State | 7 | 2.1 | 4 |
| βKayin State | 6 | 2.3 | 41 |
| βYangon Region | 5 | 2.0 | β |
| π¨Tanintharyi Region | 4 | 2.0 | β |
| βMagway Region | 4 | 1.8 | β |
| π¨Mon State | 3 | 2.0 | β |
| βKachin State | 3 | 2.0 | β |
| βKayah State | 2 | 2.0 | β |
| βMandalay Region | 2 | 2.0 | β |
β ESCALATION SIGNALS7-day vs prior 7-day
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π REGION VOLATILITY
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